RealReal surged 450% from December 2023 to November 2025 while LVMH flatlined near 100. The second-hand luxury market is eating primary luxury’s growth, driven by Gen Z buyers who discover brands through social platforms and resale channels rather than flagship stores. Markets are pricing in a fundamental shift in how luxury goods circulate.
The Data
The performance divergence is stark: RealReal stock appreciation of 450% versus LVMH’s flat performance over the same period. The generational driver: Gen Z’s luxury spending is projected to grow from 4% to 25% of the market by 2030. This cohort’s discovery pattern differs fundamentally – social platforms and resale channels rather than traditional luxury marketing. The strategic implication: if resale platforms capture high-growth segments while primary luxury stagnates, established brands face an existential choice.
Framework Analysis
This follows the pattern the Great SaaS Bifurcation describes: when distribution channels shift, incumbents optimized for old channels lose to platforms native to new ones. Gen Z discovering luxury through Instagram and The RealReal rather than Vogue and Fifth Avenue represents a distribution shift that traditional luxury marketing cannot easily address.
The dynamic also connects to tech business models – platforms with network effects (RealReal’s buyer-seller matching) compound advantages over linear retail models. Each transaction creates data and trust that makes the next transaction easier.
Strategic Implications
Luxury brands face a strategic choice: legitimize secondhand channels (as some have through authentication partnerships) or lose value to platforms outside their control. The 450% vs. flat performance gap suggests markets believe resale platforms will capture disproportionate value from luxury’s next growth phase.
The Deeper Pattern
Generational shifts in discovery and purchase behavior create opportunities for platforms aligned with those behaviors. Luxury brands built distribution for Baby Boomers and Gen X. Gen Z’s different patterns favor different channels. The asset (brand equity) remains valuable; the distribution must evolve.
Key Takeaway
RealReal’s 450% surge versus LVMH’s flat performance signals a structural shift: Gen Z discovers and buys luxury through resale platforms, not traditional channels. Primary luxury must adapt distribution or cede growth to secondhand markets.
