Whoever owns the distribution surface controls the margin. Content, models, and features commoditize. Interfaces do not.
Same War, Different Domain
| Streaming | AI Platforms |
|---|---|
| Netflix vs Paramount fighting for WBD ($100B+) | ChatGPT vs Claude vs Gemini fighting for workflow embedding |
| Battle for recommendation surface | Battle for AI-mediated discovery |
The Coding Tools War (Real-Time Example)
Developer tools perfectly illustrate platform war dynamics:
- Cursor: $2.5B+ valuation, breakout AI coding leader
- Windsurf: $2.4B Google acquisition response
- GitHub Copilot: 1.8M+ paying subscribers, Microsoft incumbent
- Replit: $1.2B valuation, browser-based IDE
The “recommendation surface” here is the code completion interface — whoever controls what code developers see controls developer productivity.
Four Strategic Principles
- Surface = Power. The interface owner captures value regardless of what runs underneath.
- AI mediates discovery. Controlling the mediation layer becomes the strategic prize.
- Network effects compound. Every interaction improves recommendations, which attracts users, which generates data.
- Winner-take-most is structural. Platform economics don’t support 5 equal players. Consolidation is inevitable.
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