The OpenAI partnership has evolved from dependency to hedged coexistence—OpenAI building infrastructure at Microsoft-rival scale.
The Deal Structure
- $13B invested by Microsoft
- 27% equity stake (~$135B value at current valuation)
- 700M+ weekly ChatGPT users served
- $250B+ compute commitment
What Microsoft Got
- ✓ 27% equity stake
- ✓ IP rights through 2032
- ✓ Azure API exclusivity
- ✓ Revenue share til AGI
- ✓ $250B Azure commitment
- ✓ Post-AGI model access
What Microsoft Lost
- ✗ Right of first refusal
- ✗ Compute exclusivity
- ✗ Consumer hardware IP
- ✗ Full cloud lock-in
- ✗ Post-AGI revenue share
- ✗ Jony Ive partnership
RPO Split: $625B Backlog
| Segment | Amount | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| OpenAI (~45%) | ~$280B | — |
| Diversified (~55%) | ~$345B | +28% |
Stargate: OpenAI’s Independence
$500B total Stargate commitment (SoftBank + Oracle + MGX + 8+ GW planned)
| Partner | Deal |
|---|---|
| AWS | $38B (7-year deal) |
| CoreWeave | $12B |
| Amazon | $10B+ (talks) |
| Oracle | 4.5 GW capacity |
Stargate Sites: TX, NM, OH, MI, WI
The AGI Clause
If OpenAI declares AGI:
- Revenue share terminates
- IP rights constrained to pre-AGI models only
- Requires independent panel verification
Microsoft’s Hedge: 27% equity + internal MAI+ development as model independence hedge
The Diversified Balance
“The significant remaining balance [non-OpenAI RPO] grew 28% and reflects ongoing broad customer demand. Super high confidence in it.”
— Amy Hood, CFO
The Takeaway
Partnership evolved from dependency to hedged coexistence—OpenAI building infrastructure at Microsoft-rival scale.
This is part of a comprehensive analysis. Read the full analysis on The Business Engineer.
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