Pat Gelsinger returned to Intel in February 2021 as the prodigal son who would restore the chip giant to glory. Three years later, he’s forced out after destroying $150 billion in market value, bleeding $7 billion annually in the foundry business, and completely missing the AI revolution. This isn’t just a CEO departure—it’s the end of Intel’s dream to challenge TSMC and the beginning of a potential breakup that would have been unthinkable when Gelsinger took the helm.
Government Support: Got $8.5B CHIPS Act funding, still failing
The Strategic Mistakes That Killed Gelsinger
Mistake #1: Fighting Yesterday’s War
Gelsinger’s Vision: Make Intel a manufacturing powerhouse again Market Reality: The world needed AI compute, not more fabs
The Fatal Flaw: While Gelsinger obsessed over competing with TSMC in manufacturing, NVIDIA was building the AI future. Intel spent $100B+ on fabs while the entire AI market exploded without them.
The Final Straw: When Gelsinger presented the 2025 plan showing continued massive foundry losses with no clear path to profitability, the board realized the turnaround had failed.
What the Board Wants Next
The New CEO Profile:
Financial engineer, not chip engineer
Breakup specialist likely
Cost cutter mandate
No sacred cows
Translation: Intel’s board has given up on Gelsinger’s integrated vision. They want someone who will split the company and maximize value through financial engineering.
Best Case: Focused companies find niches Base Case: Slow decline continues Worst Case: Irrelevance accelerates
The Investment Angle
Why Intel Might Be a Buy
The Breakup Value:
Sum of parts: $120-150B
Current market cap: $85B
Upside: 40-75%
The Catalyst: New CEO with breakup mandate
The Risk: Execution harder than spreadsheets
Why Intel Is Still a Sell
Structural Challenges:
No AI position
Manufacturing subscale
Culture broken
Competition strengthening
The Reality: Financial engineering can’t fix strategic failure
The Bottom Line
Pat Gelsinger’s departure marks the end of Intel’s last attempt to reclaim its former glory through technology leadership. He bet $150 billion that Intel could out-manufacture TSMC and out-innovate NVIDIA simultaneously. The market’s verdict was devastating: a 70% stock price collapse and forced exit after three years.
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The Strategic Reality: Intel is no longer a technology leader but a restructuring story. The next CEO won’t be a visionary technologist but a financial engineer tasked with breaking up the company Gelsinger tried to save. The IDM model that made Intel great is now what’s killing it.
For Business Leaders: Intel’s failure is a masterclass in strategic timing. Gelsinger was fighting to win the manufacturing war of the 2010s in the AI age of the 2020s. No amount of execution could overcome being strategically wrong. The lesson: In technology, being early is the same as being wrong, and being late is fatal.
Three Predictions:
Intel announces breakup within 18 months: New CEO’s first major move
Stock hits $30 on breakup announcement: 50% upside on financial engineering
Intel Foundry eventually sold to highest bidder: After proving unviable standalone
Gennaro is the creator of FourWeekMBA, which reached about four million business people, comprising C-level executives, investors, analysts, product managers, and aspiring digital entrepreneurs in 2022 alone | He is also Director of Sales for a high-tech scaleup in the AI Industry | In 2012, Gennaro earned an International MBA with emphasis on Corporate Finance and Business Strategy.
