The New York Times reports OpenAI is “leaning toward” delaying its IPO to 2027. Choppy markets. Concerns about retail investor appetite. Advisors recommending either wait for $1 trillion or lower the valuation. The company that spent this week announcing JalapeΓ±o chips, $100B ad ambitions, and GPT-5.6 just blinked on the biggest bet of all.
Choppy markets. SpaceX IPO’d at $135, rocketed to $225+, then crashed back to ~$153. The mega-IPO playbook just showed its risk.
Retail investor skepticism.OpenAI is worried it “may not find much enthusiasm from retail investors” β the lifeblood of a consumer-facing IPO.
Valuation gap. Advisors say: wait until 2027 to IPO at $1 trillion, or lower the valuation for a quicker listing. Neither is great β one delays cash, the other signals weakness.
Internally, CFO Sarah Friar reportedly urged waiting until 2027, citing the $3.7B quarterly burn, compute infrastructure commitments, and the burden of public reporting. CEO Sam Altman favored a quicker timeline.
SpaceX’s stock collapse from $225 to $153 after its IPO is the cautionary tale. If a $2T company with real revenue (rockets + Starlink + $27B in AI compute) can lose 30% post-IPO, what happens to a company burning $3.7B/quarter? OpenAI saw the SpaceX trajectory and reconsidered.
THE BURN RATE IS THE REAL PROBLEM
$3.7B quarterly loss. $25B revenue. Negative margins. JalapeΓ±o promises 50% inference savings β but it won’t deploy until late 2026. The ad business targets $100B by 2030 β but it’s barely started. Public markets want profitability trajectory, not narrative. OpenAI doesn’t have one yet.
OpenAI spent this week building the most aggressive IPO narrative in tech history β custom chips, $100B ad target, enterprisemodel launch, cybersecurity platform. Then the market sent a message: not yet. SpaceX’s post-IPO decline spooked everyone. Retail investor skepticism is real. And a company burning $3.7B/quarter can’t afford a weak debut. The delay to 2027 is rational β but it gives Anthropic, which has better margins and better models, a chance to IPO first. The most consequential race in AI might not be about models at all. It might be about who goes public first β and who the market trusts more.
Business Engineer
The AI Supercycle β When the Market Says “Not Yet”
Gennaro is the creator of FourWeekMBA, which reached about four million business people, comprising C-level executives, investors, analysts, product managers, and aspiring digital entrepreneurs in 2022 alone | He is also Director of Sales for a high-tech scaleup in the AI Industry | In 2012, Gennaro earned an International MBA with emphasis on Corporate Finance and Business Strategy.
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