The 2026 AI Vendor Shakeout: Who Survives the Goldilocks Test

VCs are making a bold prediction for 2026: enterprises will spend more on AI—through fewer vendors.

Andrew Ferguson of Databricks Ventures put it bluntly: “2026 will be the year that enterprises start consolidating their investments and picking winners.”

This isn’t random consolidation. It’s the Goldilocks Test playing out at scale.

The Shakeout Framework

Every AI vendor sits in one of three zones:

The Too Cold Casualties

KPMG notes that acquisition prices are increasingly dictated by strategic value of talent and IP—the “acqui-hire” trend is accelerating.

Translation: Point solutions without embedding depth are being bought for their people, not their products.

At risk:

• Single-function AI tools
• Coding automation startups (market concentrating to “select assets”)
• Sales/marketing automation without platform depth
• Any tool switchable in under 90 days

The Too Hot Reckoning

The flip side: vendors who over-extracted are facing the replacement projects they thought were impossible.

Constellation Research notes buyers are “fatigued by claims wars” and will reward vendors demonstrating actual outcomes—not lock-in mechanics.

The Goldilocks Winners

Who survives? Vendors with:

• Structural dependency (12+ month switching cost)
• Continuous value creation (V/E ratio > 2)
• Pricing restraint (customers don’t feel hostage)

The $315B SaaS market isn’t shrinking—it’s concentrating. Budget flows from the extremes to the center.

The Strategic Question

For vendors: Which zone are you in? The answer determines whether you’re a consolidator or a casualty.

For buyers: Map your vendors to zones now. The shakeout creates negotiating leverage—if you know who’s desperate.

Framework: The Goldilocks Zone of AI Embedding | The Business Engineer