While pursuing the most aggressive growth plan in corporate history, OpenAI continues to hemorrhage money.
The Numbers
- 2024: $5 billion in losses on $3.7 billion in revenue
- Through 2028: Projected losses total $44 billion
- Cash flow positive: Not expected until 2029 at the earliest
- Annual burn rate: $10B+ while executing the growth plan
The Comparison
Anthropic projects positive cash flow by 2028 — a full year or more ahead of OpenAI, despite being smaller. Anthropic’s burn rate is roughly one-third of OpenAI’s despite growing faster in enterprise markets.
The Infrastructure Lock-In
OpenAI’s $1.4 trillion in infrastructure commitments cannot be unwound:
- Oracle: $300B committed
- Microsoft Azure: $250B committed
- NVIDIA/AMD: ~$200B committed
- Stargate: $500B over four years, with $100B already deployed
There is no graceful retreat. Revenue expansion is not optional — it is required to justify the cost base.
The Risk
When growth disappoints, Anthropic can adjust. OpenAI cannot. The commitments are already signed. There’s no slow path available.
This is part of a comprehensive analysis. Read the full analysis on The Business Engineer.
