According to The Information’s Q3 2025 reporting, OpenAI has cut its 2025 agent revenue projections by half—from an implied $2.8B to $1.4B. This suggests the agentic commerce bet hasn’t materialized at scale.
Original projection: ~$2.8B in agent revenue for 2025
Revised projection: $1.4B
Cut: 50%
What This Means
OpenAI’s strategy had been to monetize through transaction fees rather than advertising—capturing a percentage of completed purchases rather than charging for visibility. The Agentic Commerce Protocol (ACP) was designed for this model.
But the numbers tell a different story. If transaction fees can’t fund infrastructure at the required scale, advertising becomes inevitable.
The Financial Context
OpenAI’s revenue trajectory (per The Information):
2024: $4B
2025: $13B (projected)
2026: $30B (projected)
2030: $200B (projected)
ChatGPT subscriptions drive the majority of current revenue. Sam Altman noted in January 2026 that OpenAI added $1B in annualized API revenue in the last month alone. But with 800M weekly users who cost money to serve, the math requires more revenue streams.
The Strategic Pivot
This revenue miss helps explain the January 2026 advertising announcement. OpenAI’s advertising pilots weren’t a strategic choice—they were a financial necessity.
Gennaro is the creator of FourWeekMBA, which reached about four million business people, comprising C-level executives, investors, analysts, product managers, and aspiring digital entrepreneurs in 2022 alone | He is also Director of Sales for a high-tech scaleup in the AI Industry | In 2012, Gennaro earned an International MBA with emphasis on Corporate Finance and Business Strategy.
