The Competence Trap

Here is the AI risk I think is the most relevant, in this phase of the AI paradigm.

Not job displacement. Not hallucination. Not misalignment. Those are real concerns — but they sit at the edges of the distribution, in extreme scenarios, in the future tense. The risk I want to describe is happening right now, to the most capable people in the most consequential roles, and it is almost perfectly invisible.

The risk is this: AI is creating a class of operators who are genuinely more productive and systematically less aware of when they are wrong.

This is confirmation bias on steroids.