Research firm SemiAnalysis estimates that China has a fleet of over 24GW of datacenter capacity, based on tracking more than 1,000 facilities across over 60 players, in a report introducing its China Datacenter Model published on 25 September 2026. The figure excludes about 20GW of dated pipeline and another about 30GW of announced projects, it says.
In the same report, SemiAnalysis puts US capacity at 56GW as of the end of 2026, with about 15GW in Asia-Pacific excluding China, about 14GW in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, and about 2GW in Latin America. It says published estimates of China’s capacity differ by 15x.
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The key insight: As we read it, SemiAnalysis’s numbers describe two Chinese markets at once. Old retail racks near big cities sit partly empty, while new wholesale capacity for AI is being built inland and filled, which is how high vacancy and an AI capacity shortage can coexist.
SemiAnalysis says the combined capex of Alibaba, Tencent and Baidu reached $20B in the second quarter of 2026, more than doubling year on year, and that for the first time on record all three posted negative free cash flow.
Counting ByteDance as well, it says combined capex went from roughly $35B in 2024 to over $50B in 2025 and is on a trajectory to $100B for 2026.
According to its model, ByteDance alone occupies roughly a fifth of delivered datacenter capacity in China and rents nearly all of it.
Datacenter capacity by region, GW, as estimated by SemiAnalysis in its report of 25 September 2026: US 56 (as of end-2026), China over 24, Asia-Pacific excluding China about 15, Europe/Middle East/Africa about 14, Latin America about 2.Combined capex of ByteDance, Alibaba, Tencent and Baidu as estimated by SemiAnalysis on 25 September 2026: roughly $35B in 2024, over $50B in 2025, on a trajectory to $100B for 2026.
Who Builds It
The report says GDS and VNET, the two Chinese datacenter landlords listed in the US, signed about 1.3GW of wholesale orders in the first half of 2026 with less than 10MW of retail orders, but captured only about a third of ByteDance and Alibaba orders in 2024 to 2026 so far.
State-owned carriers still own a third of national capacity, SemiAnalysis says, and China routinely delivers 100MW facilities in under 12 months.
It expects overseas leasing by Chinese hyperscalers to double from 2026 to 2029 and approach about 4GW of leased capacity.
Empty and Short at Once
SemiAnalysis says China’s market has high vacancy alongside an AI capacity shortage. Its explanation is that older retail racks around Tier-1 cities run at 30% to 50% utilization and are often unsuitable for AI densities, while new wholesale AI capacity is being built elsewhere.
It cites one colocation operator’s disclosures showing wholesale buildings back above 70% utilization while legacy retail racks sit near 60%, and says market rates for power-exclusive capacity were cut in half from about $80 per kW per month.
The Structural Read
The demand is concentrated. SemiAnalysis puts ByteDance alone at roughly a fifth of delivered capacity in China, and says it rents nearly all of it.
The spending broke a pattern. It says Alibaba, Tencent and Baidu all posted negative free cash flow in the second quarter for the first time on record.
Speed is part of the comparison. The report says China routinely delivers 100MW facilities in under 12 months.
SemiAnalysis, 25 September 2026
“Published estimates of Chinaβs datacenter capacity differ by 15x, and reports keep citing high vacancy rates.”
Three Implications
A SECOND-LARGEST MARKET SemiAnalysis estimates China’s fleet at over 24GW, against 56GW for the US by end-2026.
ONE DOMINANT TENANT ByteDance occupies roughly a fifth of delivered capacity, per SemiAnalysis.
SPENDING PAST CASH FLOW Alibaba, Tencent and Baidu capex reached $20B in the second quarter, SemiAnalysis says.
The framework’s starting point: “The structural bottleneck isnβt computing, itβs electrons.”
As we read it, SemiAnalysis’s description of China, largely free of power constraints and delivering 100MW facilities in under 12 months, is the other side of that bottleneck: where power and permits come fast, the constraint SemiAnalysis points to instead is chip supply under export restrictions.
What Is Not Established
We read the free section of SemiAnalysis’s report; the tenant-by-tenant analysis is behind its paywall and we did not read it. All capacity and spending figures are SemiAnalysis’s estimates from its own model, and the report notes that published estimates differ widely. We did not contact SemiAnalysis.
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SemiAnalysis estimates China’s datacenter fleet at over 24GW, against 56GW for the US by the end of 2026, with combined Alibaba, Tencent and Baidu capex of $20B in the second quarter and ByteDance occupying about a fifth of delivered capacity, according to its new China Datacenter Model.
A note on sourcing. We read the free section of SemiAnalysis’s report of 25 September 2026; all figures are its estimates. We did not read its paywalled section. We did not contact SemiAnalysis. Nothing here is a forecast, and nothing here is financial or investment advice.
Gennaro is the creator of FourWeekMBA, which reached about four million business people, comprising C-level executives, investors, analysts, product managers, and aspiring digital entrepreneurs in 2022 alone | He is also Director of Sales for a high-tech scaleup in the AI Industry | In 2012, Gennaro earned an International MBA with emphasis on Corporate Finance and Business Strategy.
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