The Merchant’s Dilemma: Two Taxes, Different Flavors

The Merchant's Dilemma: Two Taxes, Different Flavors

The Core Insight

“Branded search was a tax we all paid. This is now even closer to payment.” — Sean Frank, CEO of Ridge

Merchants face an impossible choice: pay Google for visibility (ads) or pay OpenAI for conversion (transaction fees). Both extract value from the merchant—just at different points in the funnel.

The question isn’t which tax is better. It’s whether AI commerce creates enough incremental value to justify the cost. The math changes based on your margins, AOV, and return rate.

How Each Platform Extracts Value

Google’s Tax: Pay for Visibility

  • Pay whether or not user buys
  • Predictable ad spend budgets
  • Spend more = more visibility
  • 0% transaction fee

Who wins: High-margin, high-AOV products (can absorb CPC as marketing cost)

OpenAI’s Tax: Pay for Conversion

  • Pay only when user buys
  • Variable cost tied to revenue
  • Organic ranking (no pay-to-play)
  • Refunded if item returned

Who wins: Low-margin, high-volume sellers (can’t afford upfront ad spend)

When Each Model Wins: A Simple Example

Scenario: $100 Product, 3% Conversion Rate

Google Model (CPC) OpenAI Model (Transaction Fee)
Assume: $2.00 CPC × 100 clicks = $200 ad spend Assume: 5% transaction fee
100 clicks × 3% conversion = 3 sales × $100 = $300 revenue 3 sales × $100 × 5% = $15 total fee
Effective “tax”: $200 / $300 = 67% (of revenue, before COGS) Effective “tax”: $15 / $300 = 5% (of revenue, before COGS)

But It’s More Complicated

Factor Google Advantage OpenAI Advantage
Visibility vs. Ranking Pay more = more prominent Organic only, no buying position
Returns Risk Already paid for the click Fee refunded on return
Scale Economics Fixed CPC regardless of volume Fee scales with every sale

This is part of a comprehensive analysis. Read the full analysis on The Business Engineer.

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