UK alcohol consumption has reached its lowest levels since 1990. US per-capita volumes declined 10% between 2021-2024. Major spirits companies – Diageo, Remy Cointreau, Pernod Ricard, Brown-Forman – have lost roughly 50% of market value over two years. This isn’t cyclical weakness. Younger demographics are structurally avoiding alcohol in favor of healthier alternatives – a shift marketing cannot reverse.
The decline is structural, not cyclical. UK alcohol consumption: lowest levels since 1990, representing a 35-year low driven by generational preference shifts. US per-capita volumes: declined 10% between 2021-2024, accelerating a longer-term trend. Ready-to-drink beverages: now comprise 9% of US alcohol consumption and growing, but capturing this shift proves difficult for legacy brands. Market value destruction: major spirits companies have experienced roughly 50% losses over two years, reflecting fundamental industry decline rather than temporary weakness.
Framework Analysis
The pattern follows what the Great SaaS Bifurcation describes for technology: when consumer preferences shift structurally, incumbents optimized for old preferences lose to new entrants native to new behaviors. Newer players like Mark Anthony Group (White Claw) and BuzzBallz capture ready-to-drink share while established brands struggle – “established spirits brands have not performed particularly strongly when poured into a can.”
This connects to market expansion theory in reverse: the overall market is contracting rather than expanding, meaning even successful adaptation captures share of a shrinking pie.
Strategic Implications
For legacy spirits companies, the 50% value destruction reflects markets pricing permanent decline, not recovery opportunity. Premium positioning offers limited advantage in convenience formats where new entrants excel. AB InBev’s category share halving since 2020 demonstrates that even aggressive adaptation may not overcome structural headwinds.
The Deeper Pattern
Generational preference shifts create industries’ most challenging disruptions because the customer isn’t switching – they’re disappearing. You cannot win back customers who never became customers. Alcohol joins tobacco, cable TV, and print media as industries where generational behavior change creates irreversible decline.
Key Takeaway
UK alcohol consumption at 35-year lows and US volumes down 10% signal structural decline, not cyclical weakness. The 50% value destruction in legacy spirits companies reflects markets pricing generational preference shifts that marketing cannot reverse.
Gennaro is the creator of FourWeekMBA, which reached about four million business people, comprising C-level executives, investors, analysts, product managers, and aspiring digital entrepreneurs in 2022 alone | He is also Director of Sales for a high-tech scaleup in the AI Industry | In 2012, Gennaro earned an International MBA with emphasis on Corporate Finance and Business Strategy.
