“If there’s one thing that unites an otherwise completely fragmented US political system, it’s the need to be strong and push back against China. That cuts across Trump, Biden, and Trump 2.0 – economic competition, military competition, geostrategic competition.”
This Is Not a Temporary Policy
For business planning, this is the critical insight: anti-China policy will not reverse with the next election. The fracturing is structural, not political.
The evidence spans three administrations:
Trump 1.0: Initiated tariffs, technology restrictions, Huawei bans
Biden: Maintained tariffs, expanded chip export controls, CHIPS Act subsidies
Trump 2.0: Further escalation, continued differentiated tariff structure by bloc
Why Consensus Persists
China policy is the rare issue where populist and establishment wings of both parties align:
Economic nationalists: Protect American jobs and manufacturing
National security hawks: Counter strategic competitor
Human rights advocates: Respond to Xinjiang, Hong Kong
Tech industry: Protect IP, prevent forced technology transfer
There’s no political constituency for returning to pre-2017 engagement.
Planning Implications
Companies waiting for “normalization” are making a strategic error. The fracturing isn’t a disruption to wait out – it’s the new baseline to plan around.
Supply chain decisions, sourcing strategies, and market positioning should assume continued US-China tension for decades, not years.
Key Takeaway
As crisis response analysis shows, recognizing structural shifts early is the difference between adaptation and disruption. This shift is structural.
Source: The Great Fracturing with Neil Shearing on The Business Engineer
