The $625B Cloud Backlog: What OpenAI’s 45% Share Means for Microsoft

Microsoft’s commercial remaining performance obligation (RPO) has reached $625 billion — up 110% year-over-year. But buried in that number is a concentration risk: approximately 45% comes from OpenAI.

The RPO Breakdown

Segment Amount Share Growth
OpenAI ~$280B ~45%
Diversified ~$345B ~55% +28%
Total $625B 100% +110%

What This Means

The Good News

  • Massive contracted revenue visibility
  • Diversified portion growing 28% independently
  • OpenAI commitment provides infrastructure utilization certainty

The Concentration Risk

  • Single customer represents ~45% of backlog
  • OpenAI building independent infrastructure (Stargate $500B)
  • AGI clause could terminate revenue share

CFO Confidence on Diversification

“The significant remaining balance [non-OpenAI RPO] grew 28% and reflects ongoing broad customer demand. Super high confidence in it.”

— Amy Hood, CFO

The OpenAI Commitment Structure

  • $250B+ Azure compute commitment
  • Revenue share until AGI declaration
  • API exclusivity on Azure
  • 700M+ weekly ChatGPT users served on Azure

The Strategic Question

Can Microsoft grow the diversified portion fast enough to offset potential OpenAI independence? The 28% growth in non-OpenAI RPO suggests yes — but the race is on.

Key Metrics to Watch

Metric Current Direction to Watch
OpenAI % of RPO ~45% Declining = healthy diversification
Diversified RPO Growth +28% Accelerating = reduced dependency
Azure AI (non-OpenAI) Growing Enterprise adoption trajectory

For the complete strategic analysis, read Microsoft In The AI Stack on The Business Engineer.

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