Microsoft’s commercial remaining performance obligation (RPO) has reached $625 billion — up 110% year-over-year. But buried in that number is a concentration risk: approximately 45% comes from OpenAI.
The RPO Breakdown
| Segment | Amount | Share | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI | ~$280B | ~45% | — |
| Diversified | ~$345B | ~55% | +28% |
| Total | $625B | 100% | +110% |
What This Means
The Good News
- Massive contracted revenue visibility
- Diversified portion growing 28% independently
- OpenAI commitment provides infrastructure utilization certainty
The Concentration Risk
- Single customer represents ~45% of backlog
- OpenAI building independent infrastructure (Stargate $500B)
- AGI clause could terminate revenue share
CFO Confidence on Diversification
“The significant remaining balance [non-OpenAI RPO] grew 28% and reflects ongoing broad customer demand. Super high confidence in it.”
— Amy Hood, CFO
The OpenAI Commitment Structure
- $250B+ Azure compute commitment
- Revenue share until AGI declaration
- API exclusivity on Azure
- 700M+ weekly ChatGPT users served on Azure
The Strategic Question
Can Microsoft grow the diversified portion fast enough to offset potential OpenAI independence? The 28% growth in non-OpenAI RPO suggests yes — but the race is on.
Key Metrics to Watch
| Metric | Current | Direction to Watch |
|---|---|---|
| OpenAI % of RPO | ~45% | Declining = healthy diversification |
| Diversified RPO Growth | +28% | Accelerating = reduced dependency |
| Azure AI (non-OpenAI) | Growing | Enterprise adoption trajectory |
For the complete strategic analysis, read Microsoft In The AI Stack on The Business Engineer.









