OpenAI cannot clearly answer fundamental questions about its identity:
Is it a consumer company? The 800M users and advertising push suggest yes. But enterprise clients distrust ad platforms.
Is it an enterprise company? The API business suggests yes. But market share is declining and consumer features dilute focus.
Is it a platform company? The agents and commerce plays suggest yes. But advertising poisons the trust required for commerce.
Is it a media company? Sora and Disney suggest yes. But video generation loses money on every render.
Is it an advertising company? The 630 ex-Meta hires suggest yes. But advertising undermines every other business line.
The Math Doesn’t Lie
Two proven engines must grow 7-10x while defending against focused competition
Three unproven engines must generate $55-95B from scratch in five years
Advertising actively undermines subscriptions AND enterprise — the two businesses that actually work
All five engines must fire perfectly to hit $200B
The $1.4 trillion in infrastructure commitments cannot be unwound
The Strategic Truth
The $200B target requires OpenAI to simultaneously be the best consumer company, the best enterprise company, the best developer platform, the best creator tool, AND the best advertising platform.
History suggests that’s not how strategy works. Companies win by being exceptional at one thing, not mediocre at five things.
In strategy, clarity beats scope. OpenAI has scope. Anthropic has clarity. The next five years will determine which approach prevails.
Gennaro is the creator of FourWeekMBA, which reached about four million business people, comprising C-level executives, investors, analysts, product managers, and aspiring digital entrepreneurs in 2022 alone | He is also Director of Sales for a high-tech scaleup in the AI Industry | In 2012, Gennaro earned an International MBA with emphasis on Corporate Finance and Business Strategy.
