OpenAI’s Infrastructure Independence: Stargate, AWS, and the Microsoft Impact

OpenAI is building infrastructure independence at unprecedented scale. The $500B Stargate project, $38B AWS deal, and other commitments signal a strategic shift away from Microsoft exclusivity.

OpenAI’s Infrastructure Deals

Stargate: The Independence Project

• $500B total commitment
• Partners: SoftBank, Oracle, MGX
• Capacity: 8+ GW planned
• Locations: TX, NM, OH, MI, WI

This is OpenAI building Microsoft-rival scale infrastructure under its own control.

What This Means for Microsoft

Near-Term (2026-2028)

• OpenAI remains major Azure customer (~45% of $625B RPO)
• $250B compute commitment still in effect
• Existing workloads continue on Azure

Long-Term (2028+)

• New OpenAI workloads may go to Stargate/AWS
• Microsoft’s OpenAI revenue share at risk
• Partnership shifts from dependency to optionality

Microsoft’s Response

1. Diversification: Non-OpenAI RPO growing 28%
2. Multi-model: Claude 4.5, Mistral, Cohere in Foundry
3. Internal development: MAI+ models as hedge
4. Equity position: 27% stake provides upside regardless

The Coexistence Thesis

The partnership has evolved from dependency to hedged coexistence — OpenAI building infrastructure at Microsoft-rival scale while Microsoft builds model optionality.

Key Metrics to Watch

For the complete strategic analysis, read Microsoft In The AI Stack on The Business Engineer.