The Hourglass model is the strategic bet of the MBB firms. It accepts that AI automates the “thinking middle” of consulting — engagement management, mid-level synthesis, and routine coordination — while asserting that the true value of consulting remains concentrated at the top (judgment) and the bottom (execution and operations).
Where the Big Four pursue scale via efficiency, the MBB bet is fundamentally different: it preserves human judgment at the top, transforms junior roles at the bottom, and allows AI to collapse the layers in between. The result is a structure where extremes grow more important, and the middle becomes structurally thin.
AI Operators — system management and automation oversight
Analysts — entry-level support
The middle tier is where displacement is most aggressive. Senior and junior layers survive but evolve; the middle gets hollowed out.
The Thesis
Middle-tier work is the most automatable. AI excels at synthesis, coordination, structured problem-solving, and standardized deliverables — precisely the work engagement managers and senior analysts historically owned.
The Hourglass model competes on judgment and innovation, not scale. It assumes that clients will still pay for premium advisory work — but only when the firm delivers differentiated insight that AI alone cannot generate.
The “Missing Rung” Problem
A hollowed middle creates an obvious structural risk: How do analysts and associates become engagement managers when the engagement manager role is precisely what AI replaces?
This problem strikes at the core of MBB’s historical strength — the linear apprenticeship path.
The Critical Vulnerability: Non-Linear Career Development
If the middle tier disappears, career progression becomes non-linear and unpredictable. Future partners may have less mid-level experience, fewer repetitions of “owning the room,” and less seasoning before stepping into senior roles.
The risk is not simply talent shortages — it is degradation of judgment.
The Hourglass Bet
The MBB wager is clear:
Experienced judgment becomes more valuable as AI collapses routine synthesis.
More senior time is spent advising, not coordinating.
Junior roles remain, but they become more technical and AI-augmented.
The middle tier becomes thinner, more specialized, or partially automated.
The strategic risk: the firm must develop future leaders without a stable middle rung.
This model accepts the collapse of the traditional consulting ladder and replaces it with a bet on accelerated learning, non-linear progression, and AI-augmented training.
Whether this can be executed at scale remains an open question — but MBB believes the alternative (competing on efficiency alone) compromises its core identity.
Gennaro is the creator of FourWeekMBA, which reached about four million business people, comprising C-level executives, investors, analysts, product managers, and aspiring digital entrepreneurs in 2022 alone | He is also Director of Sales for a high-tech scaleup in the AI Industry | In 2012, Gennaro earned an International MBA with emphasis on Corporate Finance and Business Strategy.
