Burry’s worry: Meta is abandoning its capital-light softwaremodel for a capital-intensive utility-like business. Return on invested capital will inevitably decline when you’re pouring $600 billion into physical infrastructure.
The Counterargument
The train has already left the station. With $72 billion in FY2025 capex and $600 billion committed through 2028, Meta has crossed the Rubicon. The question isn’t whether to make this bet—it’s whether to make it well or poorly.
There’s a deeper point: in a world where AI capability is infrastructure-constrained, the capital-light softwaremodel may be a trap.
Companies without infrastructure access will be dependent on those who have it. Meta is choosing to be a landlord, not a tenant.
The Binary Bet
If AI is infrastructure-constrained, Meta wins big.
If it isn’t, ROIC will suffer—but dependency will still accrue to those who built first.
Gennaro is the creator of FourWeekMBA, which reached about four million business people, comprising C-level executives, investors, analysts, product managers, and aspiring digital entrepreneurs in 2022 alone | He is also Director of Sales for a high-tech scaleup in the AI Industry | In 2012, Gennaro earned an International MBA with emphasis on Corporate Finance and Business Strategy.
