Technology is no longer just an enabler of global growth—it has become a central weapon in the geopolitical battlefield of the 21st century. The era of frictionless globalization that defined the rise of the internet and smartphones is over. What we are witnessing now is a restructuring of the technology landscape under the weight of geopolitics, national security, and fragmented globalization.
In the 1990s and 2000s, the world operated under a unipolar model dominated by the United States. American technology flowed freely across borders. The internet was treated as a gift to the global masses. China, in particular, was able to tap into this US-led system, integrating itself into global supply chains and adopting what became known as the “iPhone model”: design in the US, manufacture in China. Efficiency and cost reduction were the highest priorities.
By contrast, the 2020s are defined by a bipolar battlefield. Technology is no longer a neutral enabler but a primary weapon of competition. The AI race has been framed as a struggle for “weapons of mass domination.” Export controls now choke China’s access to advanced semiconductors. National security increasingly overrides efficiency. Supply chains are being rewired away from globalization toward regional blocs.
The Innovation Paradox
This shift has created a paradox. Export controls are slowing China’s ability to access advanced chips. For example, Huawei is expected to produce only 200,000 AI chips in 2025, while China imported 1 million downgraded Nvidia chips in 2024.
The result? China is forced to “squeeze every IQ point out of every FLOP”—making the most of reduced access to cutting-edge hardware through optimization, efficiency, and creativity. In effect, constraints are becoming drivers of innovation.
Fragmented Globalization: Technology as Currency
Globalization is no longer seamless. Instead, we now see fragmented globalization, where access to technology functions as a form of geopolitical currency.
Core allies (such as Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and the Netherlands) provide essential semiconductor equipment under close coordination with the United States.
Tier 2 players face chip caps, limiting the sophistication of technologies they can access.
Restricted states like China face comprehensive controls, reshaping their innovation pathways.
This fragmentation is redrawing alliances, forcing countries to choose between competing technological blocs.
The Death of the iPhone Model
The once-dominant model—design in the US, manufacture in China—has broken down. The new reality is reshoring at a 30–50% cost premium, national security taking precedence over efficiency, and the recognition that replicating Taiwan’s semiconductor expertise in places like Arizona is far from simple.
Apple, which once financed China’s supply chain through its iPhone strategy, can no longer operate under the same assumptions. The “old model” of maximum efficiency at minimum cost has given way to a fragmented, more expensive, and politically charged supply chain.
Dual-Use Reality
A defining feature of today’s landscape is the dual-use reality of advanced AI and semiconductor technologies. The same transformer architectures that power ChatGPT can also coordinate autonomous weapons. The same compute clusters that train language models can simulate nuclear weapons or design bioweapons.
This is not speculation—it is the explicit rationale behind aggressive US-led technology export controls. For the first time since the Cold War, technology itself is viewed as both a driver of prosperity and a potential tool of destruction.
Conclusion
The “new great game” is not about oil, territory, or ideology—it’s about semiconductors, AI, and supply chains. Technology has become the new geopolitical frontier. Nations no longer compete simply for markets; they compete for technological sovereignty.
The world has shifted from efficiency-driven globalization to security-driven fragmentation. And in this landscape, the winners will not just be those who innovate the fastest, but those who can align innovation with national strategy, alliances, and resilience.
Gennaro is the creator of FourWeekMBA, which reached about four million business people, comprising C-level executives, investors, analysts, product managers, and aspiring digital entrepreneurs in 2022 alone | He is also Director of Sales for a high-tech scaleup in the AI Industry | In 2012, Gennaro earned an International MBA with emphasis on Corporate Finance and Business Strategy.
