AI-driven traffic to U.S. retail sites jumped 670% year-over-year on Cyber Monday. Shopping-related generative AI searches grew 4,700% between July 2024 and July 2025. ChatGPT now accounts for 16% of Zara’s inbound traffic. The agentic commerce thesis isn’t a prediction anymore – it’s happening, with projections of $3-5 trillion in value by 2030.
Adobe’s Cyber Monday data shows the inflection point is here. The 670% surge in AI-driven retail traffic signals a fundamental shift in how consumers discover and purchase products. ChatGPT’s traffic share to major retailers (16% for Zara, 8% for H&M and Aritzia) demonstrates that conversational AI is becoming a primary shopping channel.
The infrastructure is scaling rapidly. OpenAI’s Agentic Commerce Protocol now enables Etsy and Shopify purchases directly within ChatGPT conversations. Google rolled out agentic checkout options. Target and Walmart have integrated ChatGPT into their shopping experiences. Experts agree 2025 was “the year of the arrival” of agentic commerce.
Framework Analysis
The traffic surge validates the agentic commerce prediction ahead of schedule. The competing protocols (OpenAI’s ACP vs Google’s AP2) are driving merchant adoption faster than expected. The Agentic Commerce Stack – Discovery, Entity, State, Trust – is crystallizing in real-time.
The $3-5 trillion 2030 projection reflects the scale of transaction value that will flow through AI agents. Zero-click commerce – where agents complete purchases without users visiting product pages – is accelerating from prediction to reality.
Strategic Implications
For merchants, the 670% traffic surge creates urgent optimization pressure. Companies not prepared for AI agent discovery are already losing traffic to competitors who optimized early. The “Visit Website” button’s relevance is declining with every percentage point of traffic that flows through conversational interfaces.
The merchant choice is binary: Brand Override (become so strong consumers specify you by name) or Technical Excellence (optimize for agent selection algorithms). The middle position – relying on website experience – is disappearing as AI intermediates the shopping journey.
The Deeper Pattern
Traffic shifts precede transaction shifts. The 670% increase in AI-driven traffic will translate to proportional transaction volume as checkout infrastructure matures. 2025 was discovery; 2026 will be transactions; 2027 will be the new normal.
Key Takeaway
The 670% surge in AI-driven retail traffic and 4,700% growth in AI shopping searches validate the agentic commerce thesis. The $3-5 trillion market is forming now, not in some distant future.
Gennaro is the creator of FourWeekMBA, which reached about four million business people, comprising C-level executives, investors, analysts, product managers, and aspiring digital entrepreneurs in 2022 alone | He is also Director of Sales for a high-tech scaleup in the AI Industry | In 2012, Gennaro earned an International MBA with emphasis on Corporate Finance and Business Strategy.
