Four mental models power all 10 bets. Learn the patterns, apply anywhere, update as conditions change.
1. Goldilocks Zone — Value/Extraction Equilibrium
Core Insight: Create more value than you capture. Too cold = commoditized, no margin. Too hot = extraction, revolt comes.
V/E = Value Created ÷ Value Captured
- V/E > 2 = Goldilocks (sustainable growth)
- V/E < 1 = Revolt guaranteed
Bets Using This Framework:
- Bet #6: AI Vendor Shakeout
- Bet #8: New Pricing Models
- Bet #10: Tech Reckoning
Key Question: “Are we creating more than we capture?”
2. M&A Playbook — Consolidation Mechanics
Core Insight: Cash is depreciating asset. Capability gaps demand action. License & Lift bypasses antitrust.
Three M&A Moves: Acquire, License, Partner
Bets Using This Framework:
- Bet #1: License & Lift
- Bet #2: Mega IPO Wave
- Bet #4: $50B+ AI Deal
- Bet #7: Media Consolidation
Key Question: “What capability gap demands action NOW?”
3. Platform Wars — Winner-Take-Most Dynamics
Core Insight: Network effects compound. Interface owner captures value. Content/features commoditize. Distribution surface = margin control.
Bets Using This Framework:
- Bet #3: Platform Wars Consolidate
- Bet #7: Media Consolidation
Key Question: “Who owns the distribution surface?”
4. Convergence Pattern — Parallel Moves Reinforce
Core Insight: Infrastructure provides leverage. Platform captures value. Talent sustains differentiation. Execute all three simultaneously.
Bets Using This Framework:
- Bet #2: Mega IPO Wave
- Bet #4: $50B+ AI Deal
- Bet #5: Infrastructure Escape Velocity
Key Question: “Are we executing all three pillars?”
The Complete Toolkit
4 Frameworks → 10 Bets → Infinite Applications
The compass endures. Apply anywhere, update as conditions change.
This is part of a comprehensive analysis. Read the full analysis on The Business Engineer.
More Resources
