
The Numbers
Multiple analyst firms have sized the AI commerce opportunity, and the numbers are staggering:
| Firm | Prediction |
|---|---|
| eMarketer | AI platforms = 1.5% of total retail e-commerce ($20.9B) in 2026 |
| McKinsey | $3-5 trillion opportunity by 2030 |
| Morgan Stanley | ~50% of online shoppers will use AI agents by 2030 |
The Growth Trajectory
Holiday 2025 showed what’s coming:
- 700% growth in AI-driven shopping traffic (Holiday 2025 vs. 2024)
- 11.4% conversion rate from ChatGPT referrals (vs. 6% direct)
- 900M weekly active users on ChatGPT alone
Why 2026 Is the Inflection Point
Three factors are converging:
- Protocol maturity: UCP and ACP are now production-ready
- Merchant adoption: Major retailers (Walmart, Target, Best Buy) are committing
- User behavior shift: Consumers are starting purchase journeys in AI interfaces
The Stakes for Google and OpenAI
- Google’s $264B ad revenue depends on maintaining the click-through model
- OpenAI’s growth story needs commerce revenue to justify $157B valuation
What This Means
E-commerce has emerged as one of the major battlegrounds in the generative AI market. The winner of this battle doesn’t just capture $20.9B in 2026—they define how commerce works for the next decade.
This is part of a comprehensive analysis. Read the full analysis on The Business Engineer.









