The core flaw in many tech-centric analyses is their tendency to oversimplify causality by anchoring outcomes to technology-specific events, while the real drivers of impact often sit outside tech itself—in exogenous shocks stemming from geopolitical and macroeconomic instability.
Bloomberg’s media sentiment chart exposes how “AI bubble” narrative spikes attach to visible tech events (Nvidia earnings, DeepSeek selloff) while the actual drivers are likely exogenous macro forces harder to narrate in headlines.
Earnings cycles provide clean narrative hooks for bubble discourse, but stock movements correlate more strongly with interest rate expectations, dollar strength, and liquidity conditions than with quarterly results.
DeepSeek as Proxy Story
The early 2025 selloff was attributed to Chinese AI competition, but coincided with broader risk-off rotation driven by Treasury yield spikes and carry trade unwinding that hit all duration assets.
Hindsight Story Assembly
When corrections occur, media assembles coherent tech-specific explanations (valuation stretched, competition emerging, capex concerns) that obscure the macro triggers (liquidity withdrawal, credit tightening, risk appetite shift) actually moving markets.
Understanding the difference between narrative and causality is essential for clear strategic thinking.
Gennaro is the creator of FourWeekMBA, which reached about four million business people, comprising C-level executives, investors, analysts, product managers, and aspiring digital entrepreneurs in 2022 alone | He is also Director of Sales for a high-tech scaleup in the AI Industry | In 2012, Gennaro earned an International MBA with emphasis on Corporate Finance and Business Strategy.
