For four decades, China’s growthstory was one of the most extraordinary in human history. From a rural economy to the world’s factory floor, the country lifted hundreds of millions out of poverty and built sprawling megacities that became symbols of modernity. But today, those same megacities stand at the center of a demographic implosion that could reshape China’s future and the global economy.
The numbers are stark. In 2024, China’s fertility rate fell to 1.01 births per woman, one of the lowest in the world. Births have halved in just eight years, with only 9.54 million recorded in 2024. Meanwhile, the population is shrinking by nearly 1.4 million people annually.
The demographic pyramid, once fueled by a vast working-age base, has inverted. Already, 22% of the population is over 60, and by 2050, projections suggest nearly 40% will be past retirement age, with over 30% aged 60 or older. The dependency ratio is expected to climb to almost 70%, signaling a society where fewer workers support an expanding elderly population.
The Megacity Paradox
China’s four leading megacities—Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou—represent both the pinnacle of the country’s success and the epicenter of its demographic unraveling.
Shanghai, with nearly 25 million residents, is already grappling with an aging population and high housing costs.
Shenzhen, once the poster child of youthful dynamism, has now recorded its first population decline.
Across these cities, housing costs consume more than 30% of income, with rents ranging from ¥40–80 per square meter per month, making family formation increasingly out of reach.
Instead of drawing in young families, these cities are experiencing population outflows—a reversal of the migration flows that powered China’s economic miracle.
Structural Pressures: Housing and Aging
The urban housing crisis compounds the demographic problem. Shrinking living spaces, soaring rents, and high costs of education and healthcare are suppressing birth rates even further. For young Chinese, the economic burden of raising children in megacities has become prohibitive, despite government incentives such as two-child and three-child policies introduced since 2016.
But even with policy changes, fertility continues to fall. Once lost, demographic momentum is extraordinarily difficult to regain.
Looking Ahead: 2050 and Beyond
By 2050, China will face a society where nearly four in ten citizens are above retirement age. Its working-age population will shrink dramatically, constraining growth and straining the country’s social and healthcare systems.
The “age of heroic economic growth” that fueled China’s rise is over. The challenge now is whether China can manage an orderly transition to a slower-growth, aging society—or whether demographic collapse will erode its economic and geopolitical ambitions.
The Global Implications
China’s demographic trajectory is not just a domestic issue—it is a global shock. A shrinking Chinese workforce means weaker demand for imports, slower innovation cycles, and less labor-intensive manufacturing. At the same time, the world’s second-largest economy faces rising healthcare and pension costs that could divert resources away from global expansion.
For businesses, investors, and policymakers worldwide, China’s demographic collapse marks a structural turning point. The megacities that once symbolized endless opportunity now stand as cautionary tales of the limits of urban-driven growth when demographics turn against you.
Gennaro is the creator of FourWeekMBA, which reached about four million business people, comprising C-level executives, investors, analysts, product managers, and aspiring digital entrepreneurs in 2022 alone | He is also Director of Sales for a high-tech scaleup in the AI Industry | In 2012, Gennaro earned an International MBA with emphasis on Corporate Finance and Business Strategy.
