US quarterly GDP growth from 2016 through early 2025 reveals a consistent pattern: AI-related investment—data centers, IT manufacturing facilities, and other IT expenditures—has grown since 2022, but remains a thin layer atop an economy still driven overwhelmingly by non-AI activity.
Cloud infrastructure: Hyperscaler capex at record levels
What’s Not Changing (Yet)
The vast majority of GDP remains in categories AI hasn’t transformed:
Healthcare spending
Housing and construction (non-data-center)
Consumer services
Traditional manufacturing
Government spending
The Investment Thesis Implication
If AI’s GDP contribution is still thin, two interpretations are possible:
Bullish: Massive upside as AI penetrates the other 99% of the economy
Cautious: Current valuations price in penetration that hasn’t materialized
The answer depends on your view of AI’s scaling trajectory and time horizon.
The Bottom Line
AI is real and growing. It is not yet economically dominant. The narrative has outrun the data—which could mean opportunity or overvaluation depending on execution speed.
Gennaro is the creator of FourWeekMBA, which reached about four million business people, comprising C-level executives, investors, analysts, product managers, and aspiring digital entrepreneurs in 2022 alone | He is also Director of Sales for a high-tech scaleup in the AI Industry | In 2012, Gennaro earned an International MBA with emphasis on Corporate Finance and Business Strategy.
