The Saturation Acceleration: Why AI Capabilities Mature Faster Than You Think

The lifecycle of AI benchmarks is compressing at an exponential rate. What once took years now happens in months.

The Compression Timeline

• ImageNet (2012): ~3 years to human-level
• SuperGLUE (2019): ~2 years to saturation
• GLUE (2018): ~1 year to saturation
• SWE-bench (2024): Major jumps in months

By the time most businesses notice a capability exists, it’s already mature enough to disrupt them.

Read the full analysis on The Business Engineer.