Tesla Optimus, Figure AI, and Agility Robotics dominate headlines, but the IFR data tells a different story: industrial arms, mobile robots (AMRs), and cobots are driving actual deployments.
Humanoid Reality Check
| Factor | Humanoids | Task-Specific Robots |
|---|---|---|
| Material Cost (2025) | $35,000+ | $13,000-25,000 |
| Cost Multiple | 5-10x higher | Baseline |
| Commercial Viability | 2030+ projected | Now |
| Pragmatist Appeal | Low (form over function) | High (reliability focus) |
Expert Assessment
Stephan Hotz, Wandelbots: “Most tasks can be solved more reliably and cheaply with traditional form factors, like arms or mobile robots.”
The Pattern
Physical AI adoption follows the same path as software AI—specialized tools before general-purpose agents.
Just as Excel and email preceded ChatGPT, expect:
- Warehouse robots
- Surgical systems
- Inspection drones
…to cross the chasm years before general-purpose humanoids.
Where the Volume Is
| Category | 2024 Status |
|---|---|
| Industrial Arms | Dominant installed base |
| AMRs (Mobile Robots) | Fastest growth category |
| Cobots | 64,542 units, +12% YoY |
| Humanoids | Pilot deployments only |
This analysis is part of a comprehensive report. Read the full analysis: Physical AI Is Crossing the Manufacturing Chasm on The Business Engineer.









