Humanoid Robots Are a Distraction: Industrial Arms and Cobots Drive Real Deployments

Tesla Optimus, Figure AI, and Agility Robotics dominate headlines, but the IFR data tells a different story: industrial arms, mobile robots (AMRs), and cobots are driving actual deployments.

Humanoid Reality Check

Factor Humanoids Task-Specific Robots
Material Cost (2025) $35,000+ $13,000-25,000
Cost Multiple 5-10x higher Baseline
Commercial Viability 2030+ projected Now
Pragmatist Appeal Low (form over function) High (reliability focus)

Expert Assessment

Stephan Hotz, Wandelbots: “Most tasks can be solved more reliably and cheaply with traditional form factors, like arms or mobile robots.”

The Pattern

Physical AI adoption follows the same path as software AI—specialized tools before general-purpose agents.

Just as Excel and email preceded ChatGPT, expect:

  • Warehouse robots
  • Surgical systems
  • Inspection drones

…to cross the chasm years before general-purpose humanoids.

Where the Volume Is

Category 2024 Status
Industrial Arms Dominant installed base
AMRs (Mobile Robots) Fastest growth category
Cobots 64,542 units, +12% YoY
Humanoids Pilot deployments only

This analysis is part of a comprehensive report. Read the full analysis: Physical AI Is Crossing the Manufacturing Chasm on The Business Engineer.

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