High Bandwidth Memory (HBM): The First Binding Constraint

HBM is not interchangeable with standard DRAM. It requires specialized through-silicon via (TSV) processes that cannot be easily converted from standard production.

The HBM Triopoly

Three companies control 100% of production:

  • SK Hynix — 50% market leader
  • Samsung — 40% fast follower
  • Micron — 10% US-based

Supply Completely Sold Out

  • “We have sold out our entire 2026 HBM supply” — SK Hynix CFO
  • “Our 2025-2026 HBM capacity is fully booked” — Micron CEO
  • Shortage persists through late 2027

The Price Signal

  • +420% — DRAM price surge 2024 ($3.75 → $19.50)
  • +20% — 2026 HBM3E contract price increase

Stargate Project Demand

OpenAI’s mega-project alone could require:

  • 900K wafers/month by 2029
  • 40% of global DRAM output

Why HBM Matters

  • GPU performance limited by memory bandwidth
  • HBM provides 10x+ bandwidth vs standard DRAM
  • AI workloads are memory-bound, not compute-bound
  • HBM requires 3x raw wafer material vs standard

HBM scarcity is not a temporary imbalance. It is a structural constraint.


This is part of a comprehensive analysis. Read the full analysis on The Business Engineer.

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