How much will AI boost productivity? Economists’ estimates range from nearly nothing to 30%+ gains—a disagreement revealing fundamental uncertainty about AI’s economic impact.
Source: Financial Times
The spread is unusually wide. For most technologies, economists converge on impact estimates within a few years of deployment. AI’s range remains enormous even as adoption accelerates, suggesting something fundamentally uncertain about how to measure AI’s effects.
The pessimists argue: productivity gains require organizational change, not just technology. Most AI deployment augments rather than replaces; augmentation rarely produces step-change productivity. And measurement is hard—much AI value appears in quality improvements that GDP poorly captures.
The optimists counter: we’re in early deployment; gains compound as organizations learn to use AI effectively. The J-curve of technology adoption means initial measurement underestimates eventual impact.
The Investment Implication
Uncertainty this wide demands humility. Neither aggressive AI bets nor dismissive skepticism align with actual knowledge. The probabilistic approach: position for a range of outcomes rather than betting on a specific productivity scenario.
Gennaro is the creator of FourWeekMBA, which reached about four million business people, comprising C-level executives, investors, analysts, product managers, and aspiring digital entrepreneurs in 2022 alone | He is also Director of Sales for a high-tech scaleup in the AI Industry | In 2012, Gennaro earned an International MBA with emphasis on Corporate Finance and Business Strategy.
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