Apple has the money to fix its AI problem — but money alone cannot buy time, talent, or competitive models. The $34.5B R&D budget that failed to produce competitive AI is now being supplemented by payments to competitors.
The Big Numbers
| Metric | Value | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue (FY2025) | $416B | +2% YoY |
| Services Revenue | $109B | +26%, highest-margin |
| R&D Spending | $34.5B | AI result: Still behind |
| Stock Performance 2024 | +30% | — |
| Stock Performance 2025 | +12% | Slowing as AI concerns mount |
The Google Dependency
| Payment | Amount | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Safari Search Deal | ~$20B/year | Google to Apple (revenue) |
| Gemini AI Deal | $1B/year | Apple to Google (cost) |
| Search Fee Reduction | -5% | Trade-off for Gemini |
Double dependency: Search revenue + AI costs both flow to Google. Google now has leverage on both sides.
What The Numbers Mean
- Financially Strong: $416B revenue means Apple has resources — they’re just not getting results
- R&D Disconnect: $34.5B spent, yet Apple’s AI still can’t compete with much smaller companies like Anthropic
- Services at Risk: $109B services business depends on user engagement — if AI agents bypass apps, that revenue suffers
- Dependency Grows: Now paying Google for search AND AI — a single competitor controls both
The Critical Ratio
$34.5B R&D Spent → 0 Competitive AI Models
Worst ROI in Apple’s recent history for a strategic capability.
Analysis from The AI Intelligence Gap Inside Apple on The Business Engineer.









