OpenAI revised its stock-based compensation projections sharply upward between Q1 2025 and Q3 2025. The 2026 projection jumped from $6.5 billion to nearly $10 billion. Why? Meta forced the revision.
Between Q1 and Q3 2025, Meta aggressively poached OpenAI researchers with hundred-million-dollar packages combining signing bonuses, salaries, and equity. OpenAI’s Q1 projections assumed a talent market that no longer existed by Q3.
Key Departures Proved the Threat Was Real
Co-founder Ilya Sutskever left with $4 billion in vested equity to start SSI. Other researchers departed for Anthropic, Google, and startups. Each exit demonstrated that even massive existing holdings could not guarantee retention.
The $50 Billion Defensive Response
OpenAI established a $50 billion grant pool—10 percent of the company—to fund future retention and recruiting. The chart shows how that pool will be deployed: accelerating grants that reach $20 billion annually by 2030.
Why This Matters
OpenAI believes the difference between winning and losing the AGI race is whether key researchers stay or leave. The six-month projection revision quantifies that belief—35-40 percent more equity required than planned just months earlier.
Investors accept dilution as the price of winning. Issuing shares to fund compensation dilutes existing holdings. But in the AI race, losing talent to competitors is more destructive than dilution.
The Strategic Implication
The talent war is repricing human capital faster than any internal model predicted. AI talent is the binding constraint on development—and the market is pricing it accordingly.
Gennaro is the creator of FourWeekMBA, which reached about four million business people, comprising C-level executives, investors, analysts, product managers, and aspiring digital entrepreneurs in 2022 alone | He is also Director of Sales for a high-tech scaleup in the AI Industry | In 2012, Gennaro earned an International MBA with emphasis on Corporate Finance and Business Strategy.
