
The 2025 funding data reveals structural confirmation of winner-take-most dynamics. Foundation model companies captured 40% of all global AI funding ($80 billion), up from 27% in 2024.
The Numbers That Matter
- $84B in foundation model mega-rounds in 2025
- $40B SoftBank commitment to OpenAI—largest single AI investment in history
- $13B Anthropic raise at $183B valuation; revenue from $1B to $5B in 8 months
The Capital Stack Inversion
| Source | Amount | Rounds |
|---|---|---|
| Private Equity | $63B | 300 |
| Venture Capital | $38B | 1,600 |
PE now funds the largest AI bets while VC handles volume. This mirrors the M&A pattern where 68 megadeals (≥$10B) drove market transformation while total deal count fell to 2016 lows.
Structural Implication
The capital stack has inverted. Like megadeal M&A, transformation is now driven by a small number of oversized bets, not startup volume. The top 2 foundation models (OpenAI, Anthropic) captured 14% of all global venture investment in 2025.
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