On Running (Strong): Successfully translated Swiss engineering credibility into lifestyle positioning. The playbook is working — 24.9% growth continues.
Boutique Brands (Conditional): Tracksmith, Bandit, Satisfy win if they can scale without losing community credibility. The authenticity paradox is their test. Scaling through wholesale risks diluting exclusivity.
Nike (Conditional): Only wins if Caitlin Clark’s 2026 signature shoe + wholesale recovery restores cultural relevance, not just financialperformance. Women’s basketball offers better unit economics than traditional male endorsements.
Positioned to Lose
Lululemon (Troubled): Leadership chaos from the proxy war ensures 12-18 months of strategic drift regardless of which faction wins. The demand regime has shifted permanently.
Under Armour (M&A Target): Without Curry, no compelling narrative. Stock collapsed from $45 to under $6. Market cap around $2B makes it a restructuring or private equity candidate.
Athleisure Bets (Dead): Any brand betting on athleisure resurgence will lose. That supercycle ended with return-to-office mandates and fashion’s rejection of stretchwear.
The Bottom Line
Nike lost running not because Hoka’s foam was superior, but because Hoka understood that serious runners wanted to signal “I’m a real runner” — and Nike’s mass-market positioning couldn’t deliver that signal.
The 2026 question: Can scale players rebuild soul faster than soul can build scale?
Gennaro is the creator of FourWeekMBA, which reached about four million business people, comprising C-level executives, investors, analysts, product managers, and aspiring digital entrepreneurs in 2022 alone | He is also Director of Sales for a high-tech scaleup in the AI Industry | In 2012, Gennaro earned an International MBA with emphasis on Corporate Finance and Business Strategy.
