2026 will see the logical conclusions of 2025’s structural shifts: IPOs reopening, M&A accelerating, and winners emerging in each AI segment.
Consolidating Trends
- 68 IPOs Expected (+45% YoY)
- Record M&A Activity
- $160B Secondaries
- ~$450B VC Deployment
- 2-3 Winners/Segment
Key Trends for 2026
1. IPO Window Opens
68 expected vs 47 in 2025 (+45% YoY increase)
2. M&A Surge
Record activity expected. AI consolidation begins.
3. Secondaries Boom
$160B projected volume. LP liquidity solution.
Sectors to Watch
Gaining Momentum
- AI Agents & Automation: Workflow integration, enterprise adoption surge
- Vertical AI: Healthcare, Legal, Finance — Domain expertise = moat
- Defense Tech Expansion: $1T+ budget tailwind, geopolitical urgency
- AI Infrastructure: Compute demand surge, model serving at scale
Facing Headwinds
- Horizontal AI/SaaS: Rapid commoditization, race to bottom pricing, margin compression
- Climate Tech: Long development cycles, LP patience wearing thin, liquidity mismatch
- Pure Crypto: Post-2022 caution lingers, regulatory uncertainty, selective opportunities
- Consumer Apps: Enterprise focus dominating, CAC/LTV challenges, B2B preferred
What to Expect
Q1-Q2 2026
IPO pipeline activates, AI mega-rounds continue. Early M&A signals.
Q3-Q4 2026
Consolidation accelerates, winners emerge per segment. Acqui-hire wave begins.
Into 2027
2-3 winners per AI vertical, new equilibrium forms. Next generation emerges.
This is part of a comprehensive analysis. Read the full analysis on The Business Engineer.
More Resources
