The Core Thesis: AI Commoditizes Production but Increases Strategic Complexity — Agencies That Pivot May Emerge Stronger

The advertising agency business model is undergoing its most profound transformation since the shift from print to broadcast.

The Remaking of the Agency Business Model

The Core Thesis:

AI commoditizes production but increases strategic complexity. Agencies that pivot from making ads to orchestrating AI-generated campaigns across fragmented platforms may emerge stronger. Those who sell hours and bodies face existential pressure.

The Great Divergence:

  • Google grew 5x while agencies stayed flat
  • Platform ratio: 5:1
  • Google Ads: $265B
  • All 4 major agencies combined: ~$55B

2025: The Year of Agency Reckoning:

  • WPP: -62%
  • Publicis: -25% (but analyst ratings at highs)
  • Omnicom: -18%
  • Dentsu: Strategic Review

The Bull Case:

“The industry is being disrupted, but it’s not being disintermediated” — Morningstar

Agencies that orchestrate AI-generated campaigns across fragmented platforms may emerge stronger than before.


This is part of a comprehensive analysis. Read the full analysis on The Business Engineer.

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