This is an extremely complicated answer to give. On the many possible ways, it might evolve let’s start from two macro trends: AI/machine learning and voice. What I’m referring here is not Google as Alphabet (the overall company). But Google as the search engine and where it might be headed next.
Over the last two decades of its life, Google as a search engine has grown exponentially until it made of the search experience as the main feature of the web.
When it launched many existing giants, like AOL, saw search as a secondary feature, until the market gave its feedback, by giving Google massive success and wiping out – at the time – current web giants (just a few weeks ago Verizon wrote off from its balance sheets Yahoo and AOL).
Thus, we went from a web made of portals, to an internet made of search. Until social media kicked in and it created a different kind of experience.
Since social media has become the main competitor to search (Google and Facebook have a duopoly in digital advertising), Google realized it needed to also bet on it. It did that with Google Plus, which this year is shutting down!
This left Google with its main search engine, which is now transitioning to become more and more like a portal.
Where Google aimed at generating as many clicks toward sites listed on its engine, this number is decreasing from desktop and even more on mobile. Indeed, many marketers are assisting to the rise of the so-called zero-click searches.
In this scenario, where users are consuming more and more content from mobile, and voice is approaching, creating a lock-in experience has become – I argue – a priority for Google.
In short, wherein the past Google could afford to give us an answer to users’ queries pages and pages of content. Now if it wants to survive to the next wave of the web, it will need to give one answer. And it better be good!
From a first analysis performed by Loup Ventures:
Google Assistant seems to be performing quite good compared to other assistants on several kinds of queries:
Source: Loup Ventures
Where Google has to still rely on a large network of publishers to enrich its organic listing, what if its AI would be finally able to generate and product good organic content, at least appealing on commercial queries in the future?
Just like Uber is betting on autonomous driving, Google bet on AI for content generation might cut one of the most expensive channels for content acquisition altogether and improve dramatically its cost structure, which is as of today looks like that:
Google ten years from now
Assuming Google will have survived and thrived the era of voice, AI/Machine learning and IOT (it might be too early for blockchain domination).
We’ll have an answer engine embedded in any tool that surrounds us. Rather than a search mechanism where users look for something. That engine will have become so good at predicting what we want that it will be more of a discovery mechanism.
Thus, more and more Google will use its database to make us discover what we would like to see. No more keywords, but just a fluid communication between the human and the machine, just like a human would talk to another human.
Rather than consuming content on desktop or mobile (desktop might still be the preferred way for professional use, yet the market compared to entertainment and leisure might become a niche), we’ll be moving our hands, talking to our devices and having them make us discover things, rather than search for them.
The resources you need to get started with your business model:
- What Is a Business Model? 30 Successful Types of Business Models You Need to Know
- What Is a Business Model Canvas? Business Model Canvas Explained
- Blitzscaling Business Model Innovation Canvas In A Nutshell
- What Is a Value Proposition? Value Proposition Canvas Explained
- What Is a Lean Startup Canvas? Lean Startup Canvas Explained
- How to Write a One-Page Business Plan
- The Rise of the Subscription Economy
- How to Build a Great Business Plan According to Peter Thiel
- What Is The Most Profitable Business Model?
- The Era Of Paywalls: How To Build A Subscription Business For Your Media Outlet
- How To Create A Business Model
- What Is Business Model Innovation And Why It Matters
- What Is Blitzscaling And Why It Matters
- Snapshot: One Year Of “Business Model” Searches On Google In Review
- Business Model Vs Business Plan: When And How To Use Them
- The Five Key Factors That Lead To Successful Tech Startups
- Top 12 Business Ideas with Low Investment and High Profit
- Business Model Tools for Small Businesses and Startups
Popular case studies from the blog:
- The Power of Google Business Model in a Nutshell
- How Does Google Make Money? It’s Not Just Advertising!
- How Does DuckDuckGo Make Money? DuckDuckGo Business Model Explained
- How Amazon Makes Money: Amazon Business Model in a Nutshell
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- The Trillion Dollar Company: Apple Business Model In A Nutshell
- DuckDuckGo: The [Former] Solopreneur That Is Beating Google at Its Game